Ebola Expounds On Trump, the Rocket Man
…and button sizes.
That’s our boy.
“Why I don’t give a shit about POTUS tweeting Kim…or any dictator for that matter.”
Last day or so my feed exploded with folks incensed over the God Emperor “not understanding foreign policy” to the level of inane utterances like, “How can you be making jokes? We could all die!” Either of these statements rather ironically point to the outright ignorance and/or purposeful expunging of intellect on foreign policy by those very people proclaiming the “Trump dumb” trope.
First, let’s address the strategic realities, as they impact the political realities:
North Korea (aka Norks), armed with Soviet armaments and tanks, waited for the US to start removing it’s troops on the Korean Peninsula, and for the South Koreans (Republic of Korea, aka ROK) to lose US monetary support and receive only low level arms support, surreptitiously blitzkrieging into the South in the end of June, 1950. Why is this important? Because it establishes who the aggressor is, then and now.
The current strategic reality in the intervening time, just shy of 70 years, is that the Norks have reinforced the 38th parallel in terms of hardened artillery emplacements, with mobile batteries being the norm further North. Conservative estimates right now put 400k rounds of artillery on civilian and military targets in the opening hour. There is absolutely no question that the Norks will target civilians, as they already have in prior engagements, to include open terror incidents. In those seventy years, the militarization of the border has increased at an ever more rapid pace, North of the border. US troops, on the other hand, have largely dropped in that time. Why is this important? Because it establishes that the US has continually backed off its footprint on the peninsula, to ever increasing Northern buildup, purposely pointed at threatening ROK civilian population centers (now with the advent of ICBM tech within the nation, US civilian population centers). It also establishes that more time has dramatically expanded the capabilities of the regime, regardless of political and economic embargo. Currently Nork capability to launch a nuclear assault against the US is limited and unlikely to be precision capable, but with their rapidly expanding capabilities, time is not an ally.
The political reality:
The Norks have been reliable in one thing alone and that is not abiding by agreements. A multitude of agreements from disarming, to ceasing research of weapons of mass destruction (chemical, nuclear, biological, etc.), have continually been broken. In every instance the Norks have leveraged a “we’ll do/finish this, unless you give X” to the tune of billions in foreign aid over a multitude of administrations. The Norks have continually been in violation of exporting conventional arms, missile technology, or even WMD tech to third parties, state or non-state. Nork uranium hexafluoride was shipped to Libya via Pakistan, in turn Syrian nuclear reactor tech was almost entirely Nork, for a few examples. In 2009 a shipment of chemical warfare suits bound for Syria were interdicted. Why does this matter? A tyrant regime that purposely targets civilians, and have literally bombed civilian airplane flights, is not going to hold back on giving a WMD to a third party group for a buck if it is at all possible.
The executive reality, the interplay between heads of State, is a different matter. The Kim family, for seventy years, has successfully neutered the US’ Teddy-like stance of “speak quietly and carry a big stick” on that particular stage. The US, under the onus of an appeal to emotion fallacy, continuously paraded, has allowed the Kims to repeatedly break agreements and expand their military capability. Why is this important? The Kims have pursued nuclear weapons specifically to continue a heritage of using threat over civilian populations in return for more money, which is then dumped into their military industrial complex. For the first time, we have a President that is outright saying the behavior is enough and threatening a response in kind. This has observably caught the Kim Jong-un government off footing, as they’ve had 70 years of threat with effectively no response from a US executive. This is easily observable with their threat to attack Guam, then President Trump’s rebuttal of “all options on the table” netting a tacking back in Nork threats on the international stage, with none of the planned test launch towards Guam or nuclear fire anywhere in the US.
The short of it is that propaganda out of the Norks is an everyday thing for the last seventy years. What’s changed is we’ve allowed them ample time to gain more ability to threaten civilians all over the globe. Now, we have a bunch of facebook pseudo-foreign policy types, most with no semblance of field experience, chiming in that we should //allow the Norks more time// while ceding them the stage to do so, thereby encouraging other similar regimes to action. Sounds like a solid plan!
I have family and friends spread throughout Westpac, and while I’m not in a hurry to have a fight that’s not necessary, there are some fights that don’t get better with time. Seventy years of pleading and playing politely has gotten us nowhere; it’s beyond time for a change in tack. That’s why I don’t give a shit about our President bluntly telling a tyrant that time might have granted him a toothpick, but we’ll respond in kind with a baseball bat; it has shown results before. Even if a conflict did break out, now is better than later. Allowing the Norks to hit the level where MAD theory actually applies is exactly what we will get under the argument of “be nice, maybe things will change.” The Cold War will look quaint by comparison.
Humanity...or the Lack Thereof, Military Thingies, People, Politics, World Stuff | tree hugging sister | 
January 4, 2018 9:22 am
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Excellent analysis.
Thanks, aelf. We’re pretty proud of the cantankerous brain.
With reason.
Yep, spot on, all around. The Norks have been stirring s**t and making money off the smell since the original truce was signed.
I’ll note that the Norks almost certainly have an extensive penetration of South Korea (and likely other nations as well) of sleeper cells primed to ramp into active operations, for whatever it takes. Terrorism, sabotage, agitprop, you name it.
(And some not so sleeper cells, when you consider how many useful idiots are delighted to kiss Dear Leader’s arse.)
Finally, let’s not forget the large component of special operation troops within the Nork military. Most them will infiltrate South Korea under the cover of artillery and rocket attacks.
(What, you think all those accidental landings of boats and submarines on South Korean territory came from pleasure cruises? Har har hardee har har!)
Said special operation troops will raise well planned havoc, probably in coordination with the sleeper cells.
And none of this would happen by accident. Multi-generational contingency planning is feasible with brutal and oppressive regimes such as North Korea. They did not last this long by accident.
That said … … I have to wonder how much of their extensive munition stockpile remains viable? Even with the best of storage facilities, components age, chemicals interact, and water damages. I imagine that they have a robust maintenance system (motivated by death squads), but nothing within modern technology can prevent simple aging and deterioration. It’s nothing to pin any hopes on, but the engineer in me does have to ask.
Good analysis, Ebola.