War In The Ukraine?

Well, things may have gotten much dicier overnight. The Presidential Residence in Kiev has been abandoned, as the President has fled to the eastern, Russo-Centric region of the country and the protesters are now the ones in essence protecting the Parliament building, where Parliament has just voted to release the former opposition leader from jail. Odds are much greater now of civil war, it seems to me, with the country splitting in two at the start of it which as the chart at Zero shows (via ZeroHedge) Putin will simply not allow

This is not a “Georgia” repeat. This could be a major armed conflict in direct contact with the borders of 4 NATO Members over control of some of the main energy supply pipelines to Western Europe, which means a very real danger of Article 5 being invoked:

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .
Article 6 (1)

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

This can literally explode very very quickly.

But don’t worry, Obama is focused like a laser on improving diesel truck mileage.

8 Responses to “War In The Ukraine?”

  1. JeffS says:

    President Jug Ears standing up to Putin? ‘Tis to laugh! He’ll paint one of his red lines, and keep on moving it.

    So, I suspect there will be no direct action by US forces. But, as ZeroHedge notes, yeah, we’ll fund the rebels. The EU had better as well, unless they want to submit to Russian rule.

    NATO … now, that could be dicey. I slammed NATO readiness yesterday, but some of the nations potentially impacted by this still have forces. If they have the will to fight, Putin may have a real problem.

    The real problem (aside from NATO being ineffective) is with the rebels — Yanukovych has a standing army. The rebels do not, as far as I know.

  2. Mr. Bingley says:

    Jeff, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are all NATO members. Things get hot (and not because of John Kerry’s Gerbil Warmening) and millions of refugees start flooding across their borders…natural gas pipelines get sabotaged…it gets ugly very quickly.

  3. major dad says:

    I don’t think anybody over there has the armor to stand up to the Russians, we pulled all M-1s out awhile back. Putin will roll the tanks if the country splits. It’ll be a bloody civil war and the Chenchens will probably use it as an opportunity to make gains. Obama is feckless, nobody pays attention to him anyway. Not much the US can do but sit back and watch.

  4. Mr. Bingley says:

    Well, that unfortunately is one huge problem, md, while we continue on what’s turning into our modern-day Sicilian Expedition in Afghanistan.

  5. JeffS says:

    What Major Dad said. I imagine that the NATO forces have some anti-armor capability, though.

    US combat forces stationed in Europe are — to put mildly — pathetic. It’s a paper tiger — 3rd ID and that 1st Cav BCT are “regionally aligned”, which means (I hope) that they have equipment and vehicles staged in Europe for rapid deployment. IF they are deployed.

    The only combat units in Europe are the 173rd Brigade (airborne forces), a combat air brigade, and air defense assets. That ain’t much against multiple armor brigades with a shorter supply line.

    Mr. B, I agree completely. The problem is, NATO deliberately cut defense spending on the assumption that Russia was no longer a threat. That turns out to be a wrong assumption, although there’s the chance Putin can’t sustain that sort of build up. And even at the height of the Cold War, NATO depended heavily on US military power (see above commentary on US military power in Europe).

    And the fact was, our strategy back then also depended heavily on rapid mobilization and deployment of military forces from the USA into Europe. Not much of that support mechanism exists anymore.

    So, I expect NATO to take it in the shorts from Russia. I hope that Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania are already preparing for combat; it’ll improve their chances.

    So, if s**t hits the fan in the Ukraine, it’s going to get uglier by the day.

  6. JeffS says:

    Hot Air posted an update. Sounds like the Ukrainian army is remaining neutral. If that holds, breathe a sigh of (temporary) relief.

  7. Syd B. says:

    Security footage of Yanukovich leaving his house that fateful night, with trucks, and then helicopter.

    I wonder what was in the trucks.

    Some people are estimating that he was worth $11bn


  8. Syd B. says:

    The Daily Mail has put together a collection of photos of what happens when tyranny comes to your neighborhood. Some amazing shots here.


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