Your Daily “Unexpected”

What they Hoped to see

U.S. non-farm payrolls data, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT, is forecast to show the U.S. economy added no jobs in September as shrinking government payrolls offset modest gains in private hiring. If the forecast proves true, it could cement expectations of further Fed monetary action.

“It’s already baked in the sand. We know the jobs market is going to remain tight for a while. The question is how negative is the report today,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.

“If it is a real negative, that steps up the prospect on quantitative easing two happening sooner than later.”

The private sector was expected to have added 75,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate was seen ticking up to 9.7 percent from 9.6 percent in August.

The headline I see shows that in fact

Economy loses 95,000 jobs in Sept, jobless rate at 9.6 pct

Not good.

9 Responses to “Your Daily “Unexpected””

  1. Gary from Jersey says:

    Gallup says it’s 10.1% with no hope of improvement any time soon, such as for the next generation.

  2. Since these numbers for unemployment are the same as for the 1930’s, can we call it a depression now??

  3. tree hugging sister says:

    My favorite line out of the bigger report?

    …The government revised data for July and August to show 15,000 more jobs lost that previously reported. It also said its preliminary benchmark revision estimate indicated employment in the 12 months to March had been overstated by 366,000.

    So…what else they been making up?

  4. Mr. Bingley says:

    Well, at least we have our answer: the employment reports are about all they’ve “created or saved.”

  5. Yojimbo says:

    I heard yesterday that the “overstated” was supposed to be around 900,000. They understated the overstated?:)

    That article on Gallup also indicated that not all the bad stuff from September would be caught in the September numbers. Maybe that’s another reason he plans to leave just before that Friday.

    The best thing for the economy would be an increase in unemployment around the Virginia and Maryland area by a few hundred for the January numbers.

  6. major dad says:

    Still don’t understand their math, lose jobs, unexpected of course,and the unemployment rate stays the same.

  7. Yojimbo says:

    Simple MD: no increase in the rate before the election. Find the number you want and then mix and match until you get there.

    I haven’t been to the Labor website, I still value my last vestiges of semi-sanity, but they probably did some of the following.

    1) a decrease in the number of people “re-entering” the labor force.
    2) a change in the “assumption” of the number of jobs extant in the economy.

  8. Dave E. says:

    “Find the number you want and then mix and match until you get there.”

    Hey, it works for the temperature records.

  9. greg newsom says:

    Something that has never been addressed in all these government statics:There are
    one million legal immigrants
    allowed in the US annually.
    That’s 80 thousand per month.
    The job creation won’t even equal that increase in the job market.Or are they going on the dole?

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