A Light Dusting This Morning On The Way In

Certainly fewer people on the bus, that’s for sure. And from our friends at the NWS

THE LATEST MODELS THOUGH ARE INSISTING THAT THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE
INTO A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC…EASTERN NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES MAJOR METROPOLITAN
AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA THROUGH NEW YORK
CITY AND UP TO BOSTON. THE MODELS DEPICT A POWERFUL DEFORMATION
ZONE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING INLAND IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VERY INTENSE
SNOWFALL AS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING…ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS COMBINE FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES. ASIDE FROM THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP…THE MOIST
ONSHORE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
TERRAIN OF WESTERN CT TO THE HILLS WEST OF BOSTON.

MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF
HEAVY SNOW TO RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MANY AREAS FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM NEW YORK CITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATE
EASTERN MA AND RI AS HAVING THE HIGHEST TOTALS. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE TRENDED A FEW INCHES LOWER ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SNOW AREA ACROSS NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

“Very Strong Frontogenetic Forcing” sounds really kinky…

8 Responses to “A Light Dusting This Morning On The Way In”

  1. Syd B. says:

    I was scheduled to fly out of Newark to San Jose, Costa Rica, on Tuesday afternoon, however, received notice last night that both my flight into Newark and the connecting flight out were cancelled. Every conceivable alternate flight was full or unavailable. I was told that if I flew into Houston, there would be a possibility of catching an ongoing flight, but they couldn’t guarantee that the connecting plane would even be there. The gridlock that this storm will cause across the country will be significant.

    I just cancelled the whole damn trip.

  2. Mr. Bingley says:

    Yeah, Syd an invite from Fausta to Miami is not to be cast aside lightly!

  3. Julie says:

    Syd, it’s going to be 63 and sunny here in Houston, so even if your plane isn’t here, you could rent a car and hang out in Galveston for a few days :). Oh, and MESOSCALE BANDING would be a good name for a rock band.

  4. Syd B. says:

    I have a place in Delray Beach, at which I spend much of the winter,however, I always enjoy my drives down to Miami. Its quite the place. As for Galveston, never been there and only know it because Glen Campbell kept singing about it, however, I’ve always wanted to golf in Texas. I hear they have some spectacular resorts there. That’s what I was off to Costa Rica to do, but that will have to wait. Florida, it is.

  5. leelu says:

    I saw Frontogenic Forcing open for Snowy Blizzard Shitstorm in 2009.

  6. aelfheld says:

    On the upside, there’s a favourable synoptic scale set-up.

  7. JeffS says:

    Better top off on the anti-freeze, Mr. Bingley. Just in case.

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