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Patsy filled mine this morning. If she wasn’t already married, I’d propose to her. 🙂
There are a lot of stations out of gas up here in Milton. The ones that had gas available had ridiculous lines of people waiting. Except, that is, the Raceway near Avalon Blvd., which had gas at a dime above all of the other stations…and no lines. I whipped in there, gassed up, and was back on the road in <10 minutes, for a premium of ~$2. I told the butchers at the grocery about it and they went off on a rant about "PRICE GOUGING!!1!" Whatever. Demand, supply, and simple logic always confound liberals and simpletons…but I repeat myself.
Gas trucks hitting the stations on our side of town around 11:00, skh. Got a couple cans filled just in case, because they’re still saying we could get hurricane winds even though we’re well outside the Cone of Whaaa…?????
Still a tropical storm. Not to diss the weather gods but I think this one will be manageable, certainly for us hurricane veterans. I know, I know but it’s not like paying homage to them ever did any good.
This fellow is wreaking havoc with the forecasters. I’ve never seen us stay under a Hurricane Warning for a Tropical Storm…when we’re OUTSIDE the cone! And why? Because 3 of the outlier programs STILL bring it into the AL/MS border or Mobile. Nasty for us. And he’s stalling out.
I think someone on WeatherUnderground said it’s had 58 different tracks and 18 different landfall projections so far and STILL not done.
I doubt there’s a weather guy at the NHC with a hair left on his head.
Tommy Tucker (WWL radio) had one of those guys on this morning. He could not be pinned down to anything. Tommy said he was going to start treating him like a hostile witness. He was totally evasive.
Ebola might walk over some of these, but I’ve dealt with weather modeling results for years, so here are my two bits:
1. People are already freaking out because it’s taking a path similar to Katrina. And, IIRC, the forecasters were taken by surprise on that one, around this same period.
2. The human tendency is to shoot the messenger.
3. Weather modeling is, at best, an educated guess, even with simple stuff like rainfall. Throwing in global influences like ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and other (probably unknown) factors can make it an uneducated guess at times.
4. The public wants a sound bite in their news. Weather is never a sound bite until the weather occurs. Up to that point, it’s an educated guess expressed in terms of chance.
So, all in all, I’m not surprised to hear the lack of a coherent forecast. I have to think that the National Hurricane Center is leasing aircraft for the mass evacuation of staff and their families in case the forecasts are wrong.
Frustrating for everyone living along the Gulf Coast, I know. And I’m sitting up here mildly hot temperatures, concerned about mere wildfires. But meteorologists are only human.
Ebola can’t stand the models. Says they’re flawed to begin with, so “shit in, shit out, what do you expect?”
What got us about Katrina, Jeffs, was the suddenness of it. When I went to bed Friday night, it was headed to Florida. I was totally unaware anything had changed until late Saturday morning when I started getting calls. She came ashore early Monday morning.
Yeah, Rob, I was in Kuwait when Katrina came in, and everyone was astounded at the sudden shift. All we could was watch, dumbfounded. Given my civilian career, I was pressed for details on the response. The best I could offer was: “People need to get the f**K out of the way. If they can’t, secure the hatches, store food, and wait for rescue.”
Sis, I hesitated saying anything like that, given my digital modeling training is a couple decades old, and focused on structural analysis of space frames. But “GIGO” (“SISO” in Ebolaspeak) stands true for ANY model, be it a scaled physical model or computer based software.
Gas jumped about thirteen cents here in NC. Gotta love the name of this one. He laughs.