Hannah, You Little Hussy

Behold the words of Avila

THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS…BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION BUT DOES NOT GO AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS. IN FACT…THE GFS HAS JOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECAST SUCH A RARE BUT NOT UNIQUE TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.

At this point she *looks* to stay Cat 1 for the near term…

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