Relaxing After a Large Helping of Eskimo Pie
…polar bears gossip about global warming…
…and contemplate their ice pack.
The WWF report, “Polar Bears At Risk,” cites studies that show reductions in both areal coverage and thickness of Arctic sea ice during the past several decades as evidence that model forecasts of coming events are correct. WWF disregards a study by Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans that examines the relationship between sea ice and temperature and concludes, “Overall the possible impact of global warming appears to play a minor role in changes to Arctic sea ice.” The Canadians* find that changes in wind patterns lead to reshuffling of the ice in the Arctic ocean rather than to a large overall decline.
The answer was blowing in the wind ~ a run of lousy timing* explained the huge discrepencies.
Thus, in the case of submarine sampling used by Rothrock et al., we see that when the submarines returned in 1993, 1996 and 1997, winds had largely expelled ice from the central Arctic and especially had driven ice into the Canadian sector from which U.S.submarines were politically excluded. Inferred rapid loss of ice volume was a result of undersampling, an unlucky combination of ever-varying winds and politics.
But polar bears DROWNING! Awwww…. That tugs at the heartstrings…
…if it’s true. Look at the little fellow helpless in the water there…
But the most interesting aspect of the [2002] WWF report is what it omits entirely: the relationship between current climate trends and polar bear population.
Figure 1 [below], which is taken from the WWF report, details the location of polar bear populations and their current status. We’ve depicted their status using shading, which was not a part of WWF’s original figure. Figure 2 shows the temperature trends from 1950 to 1995 for Arctic subregions as defined in a recent paper by Rajmund Przybylak and examining Arctic temperature histories.
Notice how in the Baffin Bay region (the area between North America and Greenland), the temperature has been decreasing and the polar bear populations there have been in decline. In the region with the greatest temperature increase – the Pacific region between Siberia and Alaska – nearby bear populations in the North and South Beaufort Sea (just north of Alaska) have risen. Bear population and temperature have been relatively stable throughout the remaining areas. In other words, the observed relationship between temperature and bear population is the opposite of what the WWF report would lead you to believe is to come.
Figure 1. Polar bear population trends (yellow = unknown; green = stable; blue = decreasing; red = increasing), according to information in the World Wildlife Fund report.
Figure 2. Temperature trend, 1950 to 1995, for sub-regions of the Arctic (outlined in pink) as determined in a recent study of Arctic temperature trends by Rajmund Przybylak (blue = cooling; red = warming; yellow = no data; green = no significant change).
…or not.
And I didn’t know the ice cap on Mars has been melting for six years!! 
I guess they’re pissed at us, too. Shoulda signed Kyoto, guys. 
We coulda saved the world.
World Stuff | tree hugging sister | 
May 31, 2006 5:24 pm
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WWF? Why are wrestlers involved?
Polar bears are BIG, duh. I have problems getting collars on the Scotties.
Meh, Gorezilla and his superstupid eco-thriller, planetary emergency documentary are spinning up all the Mother Gaia worshippers. I wish we could send the lot of them to Mars…..I think the polar bears would be happier.
Mars would be a good place for them. Plenty of global warming going on there. Jupiter too, I hear.
I’d like to send Gorezilla out to film that. It’d take him years.
Daughter thinks the polar bear looks like Homer Simpson.
Or me…
Sorry Bingley, that’s actually kind of an old pic. In a former life I was a polar bear and that’s me hanging out after fishing. See how fuzzy that right paw is? The PC bastards photoshopped out my Grain Belt Premium….geez, and my smoke too.
You know, that reminds me Dave: my bride and I were driving around Matawan, NJ, in 1989 or so and we saw an old Grain Belt delivery truck. It had been sort of whitewashed over but you could still make out the logo and lettering. Made my Minnesotian gal homesick, it did.
But not to the point of insisting on serving Walleye variations at breakfast, lunch and dinner, thankfully.