Wargaming Ukraine

Part I

— What I would do were I Vladdy Daddy —

— — A short wargame COA narrative on social degradation — —

— — (e.g. Why this can go to shit in a hurry) —

This is a short, large strategic overview using publicly available data and limited in scope primarily to East European parties.

Realization: Vladdy daddy is an extremely educated and experienced intelligence officer at 69 years of age with a wish to see Russia return to its former glories. He needs to establish legacy. That legacy requires at minimum a return to Warsaw Pact era postures. A minimum timeframe of 5-10 years for conflict and 10 years to cement Russian hegemony as preeminent world power should be assumed. Do not assume MAD status, as this breaks any chance of legacy. Minimal forces can be contributed to these ends. No “Red Dawn” style attacks, but the US must be broken as a world leader. Preferably inculcating the seeds of destruction for NATO.

COA Goals: break NATO, ensure at minimum East Europe is brought into Russian hegemony. Preferably through the Baltics and Balkans. Capitalize on Western sentiment for IO campaign and current ground and ballistic missile advantages.

— Ukraine — Feb – May

Step 1: Secure Ukraine leadership

Step 2: Neutralize technological hard targets

Step 3: Withdraw “peacekeeping forces” to borders and coast in order to secure Ukrainian logistics and keep them reliant, on threat of starvation.

A. Keep these forces just large enough on the Poland, Hungarian, and Romanian borders

Step 4: Ensure conditions in Ukraine show that you are not to be fucked with. Allow them to turn on themselves, present this as non-Russian enmity, “rescue” Russian forces, show how Russia is supplying food. Don’t supply any more than the cameras need.

A. Remove the bulk of ground assets to Belarus

B. Reinforce Kaliningrad by sea, secure Baltic Sea as a veiled threat to Finland and Sweden

C. Coordinate with China to assure SCS and Taiwan hostilities, if not outright invasion of Taiwan

D. Negotiate with Erdogan behind the scenes to provide IO opportunities in NATO and disgrace them within the Bosporus. Offer Syria, Greece and Bulgaria as contingent prizes to be supported.

Why – Because getting stuck in another Chechnya is not worthwhile and having secured the logistical corridors for the country, NATO’s unwillingness to intervene will continue. Turkey allows for one of many hinge points for breaking the alliance, so any and all gains made with them go towards that end.

E. Begin backing Iran more blatantly. Mutual Defense agreement being the end goal. Enable and enhance asymmetric tools in the Persian Gulf area

— Springboard Europe — May – October

Step 1: Posture forces in Belarus

Step 2: Maintain “ethnic Russian” IO campaign.

Step 3: Announce that the joining of Sweden or Finland to NATO will be considered an outright act of war.

Step 4: Within week from announcement: Use little green men or uniformed Belorussian “peace” forces to secure the Sulwaki gap overnight.

Why – To break NATO we must maintain the pretense of not being the aggressor, allowing Western European and American sentiment to overthink positions, rather than capitalize on posture.

IF – NATO forces move on the Sulwaki corridor:

A. Surge sufficient forces to secure the corridor

B. Use intervention as excuse to use Avangard hypersonic capabilities to target US leadership within capitol with conventional weapons. Wait until SOTU or some emergency session requires most of US gov’t to be in office.

Why – Using current channels for deconfliction, inform US that ballistic missiles will be used within the day and none will be nuclear capable. Point to limited use and warn that any return will be assumed to be nuclear in nature and will warrant a MAD response. The limited time from launch to impact for the Avangard’s, likely counted in minutes, will likely not allow for US leadership to escape, even with advanced notice.

Intended results – Decimated US leadership will scatter. Existing political tensions will lead to leaders like Trump attempting to wrestle control of the remaining forces, fracturing command cohesion for the US forces and thereby the majority of NATO’s logistical capability. Ensure that the US media covers that Russia offers no more strikes on the homeland, provided the US hamstring NATO support and withdraw all forces to original Warsaw Pact era lines. Even if the US does not inadvertently collapse itself, faith within NATO as to its capabilities will fracture.

ELSE – NATO forces do not move on the Sulwaki:

A. Formalize expansion of Kaliningrad region.

B. Require removal of NATO assets from Baltic States in return for promises that they will remain untouched.

C. Enforce same basic measures used on Ukraine to slowly break the Baltics, publicly.

Why – The removal, through force or through threat of force, of the Baltic states from NATO will fracture the willpower of most Balkan states. This can be exploited in concert with Turkey, or at least keep Turkey a neutral player with chances of open reward if Russia is victorious.

D. Begin working with Balkan nations behind the scene, attempt to sway Romania, Slovakia and Hungary

PROVIDED – NATO has not fractured in Eastern Europe beyond this point //&// Chinese intervention has not occurred in SCS/ push for Chinese intervention in the SCS.

— October – February

A. Push for Chinese intervention.

B. Posture Siberian Forces to “keep peace” along Finnish border

C. Enable Iranian blockade of the Persian Gulf, back Iranian strikes against Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar. Ensure China is placated with its normal assets from Iran.

Why – 30% of European crude oil comes from Russia. 46% of EU solid fuel comes from Russia. 41% of natural gas for the EU comes from Russia. Removing OPEC, while simultaneously protecting non-Russian resources, would break logistical chains and economy. Those removals would likely break NATO over the winter, which is why this needs to be done in early October, when most house heating solid and liquid fuels are at their cheapest. Break NATO over the winter economically, offering prior Warsaw block countries access to resources for breaking with NATO, guaranteeing their “sovereign” status. Allow and stoke popular uprisings.

~ Ebola sends

One Response to “Wargaming Ukraine”

1. Alice says:

   March 7, 2022 at 7:57 pm

   Superman, where are you? And I don’t mean milquetoast Superman, but the real deal.